From January to July in 2009, output of Chinese machine-made paper and paper board reached 50.875 million tons, growing by 6.2% YOY. Only output in January dropped sharply by 14.39% YOY, which was mainly affected by Chinese Spring Festival. The total output of January and February fell slightly. Outputs from March to June remained increasing steadily. Output in June rose by 15.65% YOY. The growth rate in July was a little lower but still exceeded 10% YOY. As raw materials were sold at low prices and the paper prices tended to be stable, many closed factories restarted to operate, increasing the outputs of machine-made paper and paper board. With the implementation of various economy vitalizing measures, Chinese macro economy began to revive, raising the demands for paper and paper board. Newsprint was sold worse than the machine-made paper and paper board. 2.7161 million tons of newsprint was produced in total in China from January to July in 2009, dropping by 10% YOY. Newsprint output in July was decreased by 17.9% YOY. The newsprint market was under high pressures as a result of the attack the electronic media.
From January to June in 2009, the sales volume of paper and paper board was 42.52 million tons in China, growing by 5.2% YOY. The output-sales ratio was 99.1%, rising by 2.2% YOY. Sales volume in Q1 was 18.75 million tons, increasing by 1.6% YOY. Sales volume in Q2 reached 23.776 million tons, growing by 8.3% YOY. It increased by 26.8% in Q2 compared with Q1, reflecting the sales was much better.
According to some research institutions, prices indexes of duplex board, ivory board, halftone paper and two-side offset paper rose by 11.6%, 18.5%, 16.9%, 3.98% respectively compared with the beginning of 2009. Especially, main paper products (ivory board, halftone paper began to grow rapidly since May. From the beginning of May to the middle of August, growth rates of ivory board and halftone paper were 15.2% and 18.5% respectively, better than the growth rates in the previous 4 months. Prices of newsprint, case board and corrugated paper remained almost unchanged with small growth rates. In August, their quoted prices rose by 2.1%, -11.4% and 6.8% respectively compared with the beginning of 2009.
Main reasons for the price increase are as follows: (1) Cost stimulation. Recently, prices of wastepaper and imported pulp grew significantly, increasing cost pressures on manufacturers. (2) Demand stimulation. Storages in the downstream were all sold out, therefore, the demands in this link began to restore. Chinese economy restarted to develop steadily, promoting the demands of paper and paper products. Paper prices are expected to rise as the cost pressures still exist and demands are beginning to restore. Gross profit rate will improve in a small range. With the increase of pulp paper prices, revenues of enterprises are expected to rise significantly and the gross profit rate may improve in a small range. Therefore, the net profit rate has great opportunities to be raised.
60% of Chinese wood pulp is imported, thus, its global price affects costs of Chinese wood pulp for paper obviously. From January to July in 2009, the aggregate imported wood pulp was 8.24 million tons, rising by 40.1% YOY. The average import price was 461 USD/ton, dropping by 35.9% YOY. With the rapid increase of the wood pulp prices in the international market, the prices of Chinese imported wood pulp will see a fast rise. The chain growth rates in June and July were 3.7% and 6.2% respectively. The growth rate in July was much higher than that in June.
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